An MSNBC report on the latest newsweek poll (which has Bush winning with an even 50%) also has this to say.
The anti-Kerry ads may be having an effect, especially with blue-collar, socially conservative white voters. Although pollsters say the sample size is too small to be statistically solid (with a margin of error of plus or minus nine points), in the new poll, labor-union householdsâ€”part of the Democratic baseâ€”are leaning toward Bush 54 percent to 42 percent.
Now this is in spite of basically every union in the country endorsing Kerry. Union workers are socially conservative gun owners, the highest paid nonprofessional workers and taxpayers in the country and tend to have large stock market holdings directly (401ks) or indirectly (union and company pension plans). They are generally not reliant on Social Security for their retirement. The only issue where they have a conflict with the GOP is free trade but the Democrats have supported free trade, too, and since union members are wealthy consumers the apparent free trade conflict is largely an illusion. So, why doesn’t the GOP go out and take this conservative base and elect some union leaders, take over the more conservative unions out in the red states, so the unions will stop giving their members money to the DNC.